Hormuz is closed, Brent is at $104, and last week Trump called off a strike on Iran at the last minute — after phone calls from Riyadh, Doha, and Abu Dhabi. In Muscat, negotiators are working on a deal hawks are calling a surrender. Bibi is furious. Mojtaba Khamenei has just banned the export of enriched uranium from the country.Jonathan Spyer is one of the handful of analysts who doesn't watch the war from an office — he walks into it. We ask him: a deal this week, or a strike? Why are the Gulf monarchies, of all people, saving the regime they spent thirty years wanting to see fall? And who actually won the three years of war since October 7th?

Bavorsko má větší ekonomiku než Polsko. Sasko vyrobí každý třetí evropský čip. Obě země pak Česku dávají sto padesát tisíc pracovních míst. Ideově si také se Sasy a Bavoráky velmi rozumíme. V názoru na Brusel, evropskou byrokracii, energetiku, průmysl, migraci i na ten zpropadený Green deal. Bavorský premiér Söder teď přijíždí do Brna na sudetoněmecký sjezd. Ten bude poprvé za 75 let v Čechách. V novém podcastu mluvíme o tom, proč jsou Bavorsko a Sasko důležitější než kterákoli jiná zahraniční vazba — a proč bychom to v Praze měli říkat více.

Jižní Korea s plodností 0,7. Čína ztratí 216 milionů pracujících do 2050. Niger má mediánový věk 15 let, Německo 46. Afrika ztrojnásobí populaci, Evropa drží už jen díky migraci. Procházíme čísla, která rozhodnou o důchodech, HDP a globální moci v 21. století — a vysvětlujeme, proč žádný Volcker tentokrát nepřijde.

Třikrát větší ropný šok než v roce 1973, kolaps Hormuzu o 97%, pojistné tankerů vyletělo 60×, strategické rezervy se rozpouštějí nejrychleji v historii. Amerika na krizi paradoxně vydělává, Rusko inkasuje miliardy navíc a Evropa nahradila jednu závislost druhou. Proč je rok 2026 horší než 70. léta — a proč Volckerova pilulka tentokrát neexistuje.

Sedm týdnů operace Epic Fury, zhroucené rozhovory v Islámábádu a zavřený Hormuz. Ropa nad 100 dolarů, Rusko bohatne, Čína se směje a Trump má 37 % podpory. Rekapitulujeme dva nejdivočejší týdny války v Íránu — satiricky, ale s daty.

China produces over one-third of global industrial output. That’s not a trend. That’s a structural fact. Plus China keeps growing—but also keeps hitting constraints: weak consumption, high savings, terrible demographics and pressure to shift its model. So, will it find enough energy to jump over the U.S?

Russia hasn’t collapsed. But that doesn’t mean it works. Inflation, hidden debt and improvisation define the current model. And sanctions do work—just not the way the West expected. Russia has found detours via China, third countries and the global grey zone. The key question is not whether Russia survives, but how long it can finance the war without structural damage.

War is not just geopolitics. It is also a large-scale fiscal experiment. The only real question: who ends up making money? Trump says high oil prices are great for the U.S. The Fed may be less enthusiastic. Inflation, debt and the dollar are back in play—again.

General Yaakov Amidror joined the Israeli military before the Six-Day War in 1967, serving on the front lines in the Sinai. He later fought in the Yom Kippur War in 1973 and spent two decades in the IDF, including senior command positions. He then went into politics, most recently serving as Israel’s National Security Advisor. There are few people better placed to explain what is happening in the Middle East today and Israel’s strategy toward Iran, Hamas and Hezbollah.

Modern wars no longer begin on the ground. They begin in the air—and even earlier in spreadsheets, satellite imagery, and logistics plans. That is why we invited US Air Force General Leonard J. Kosinski to the podcast, who served as Director for Logistics on the Pentagon’s Joint Staff and spent more than three decades planning global operations for the U.S. military.We discuss the war with Iran through the eyes of someone who understands how thousands of targets are planned, how the architecture of an air campaign actually works, and why logistics ultimately decides the outcome—because without it, no modern war would last more than a few days.